Which currency pairs will I trade?
Forex traders have an enormous advantage over those who trade other
markets. The options we have to choose from when deciding what to
buy are very few. Indeed, with the strategy, there are only 4 possible
choices. Compare that with over 8,000 listed stocks on the major
exchanges.
Correlations
The key to the system is the correlations between the
pairs traded. The most current correlations are displayed in brackets
after each currency pair in the Portfolio Allocator.
The correlation is a number that represents how similar the movements
of the currency pair are to the movements of the EUR/USD. The closer
the number is to 1.00, the strong the correlation; the more similar
the movements. A minus sign in front of the number means that the
movements of the currency pair have historically been in the opposite
direction of the EUR/USD.
It always trade combinations of pairs which, historically
speaking, move in opposite directions to allow the gains on one to
offset (at least to an extent), the losses on the other. In the
product movie, you can see a 1-year graph of the EUR/USD and the
USD/CHF. Historically speaking, these pairs have had a very high
(negative) correlation of approximately -0.98 (currently, -0.93).
Again, historically speaking, the movements of these pairs are the
most likely to mirror each other. In the short run, however, anything
is possible. If an unusual series of events takes place, the pairs
may move together for a time. On half the occasions, these anomalies
will work in our favor. The other half will go against us. Again,
the most current correlations are displayed in brackets after each
pair in the Portfolio Allocator.
The USD is the primary force in the global economy, and therefore,
in the Forex market. There are actually 6 "major" currency
pairs in the Forex market: the 4 the starteggy trades, plus the
AUD/USD (Australian Dollar), and the USD/CAD (Canadian Dollar).
Notice, the USD is either the base or the cross currency in all
6 of the "major"
pairs. When either good or bad news comes out of the U.S., the pairs
will react.
If economic news was only released from the USA (therefore pertaining
only to the USD), then all the pairs would have correlations of either
1.00 or -1.00. That isn't the case, however. This explains why the
correlations differ.
Europe (EUR/USD) and Switzerland (USD/CHF)
These economies are very tightly integrated. Good economic news for
Europe is typically good news for Switzerland as well, and vice versa.
Rarely does something happen which is good for one and bad for the
other. This demonstrates itself in the historically high correlation
between the EUR/USD and the USD/CHF.
Europe (EUR/USD) and Great Britain (GBP/USD)
These economies are certainly integrated, but to a lesser extent than
Europe and Switzerland. Economic news from Great Britain (affecting
the GBP) may have little or no impact on the Euro. Inflation, housing
starts, interest rates, employment, etc., may be (and frequently are)
quite different. The historical correlation between the EUR/USD and
the GBP/USD is still fairly strong, but nowhere near the EUR/USD and
the USD/CHF.
Europe (EUR/USD) and Japan (USD/JPY)
These economies have little in common. Certainly, to an extent, the
entire world is one huge economy, but economic events in Japan have
little impact on Europe, and vice versa. The primary reason the EUR/USD
and the USD/JPY are correlated as strongly as they are is almost completely
because of the dominance of the USD on the world economy.
So...which pairs are the "best" to trade?
There's not a "right" answer here. As with all investment
decisions, it comes down to your personal tolerance for risk and your
desire for reward.
Given the background above, the "safest" pairs to trade
have historically been the EUR/USD and the USD/CHF. Given the same
"Margin Percentage" value in the Portfolio Allocator, however,
also produces the lowest interest rate. There's no free lunch.
Many members have realized they can significantly increase
their interest by substituting the GBP/USD for the EUR/USD. This
is, in fact, true. The downside, though, is that the correlation
with the USD/CHF is not nearly as strong. Economic news out of Great
Britain can affect the GBP/USD and have little or no impact on the
USD/CHF. Of course, this can work either for or against us. The GBP/USD
is also the most volatile of all the currencies we trade.
Another option is to split the positively correlated pairs and trade
both the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD with the USD/CHF. This combination
allows us to increase our interest a bit while limiting our exposure
to the GBP/USD.
The strategy would recommend, at least initially, you stay away
from the USD/JPY. The interest rate is only slightly higher than
the USD/CHF, and the weak correlation makes it far less attractive.